The end of the year that is.  But is the end in sight for the housing market down turn?  Well that will depend on where you are and who you talk to.  For many parts of the country the worst is yet to come while other parts will feel little affect.  Further, the old saying, “real estate is local and all about location, location, location” ….. this will hold true.  In local markets you will see vast differences in values and whether they are going up or down.  Many having been going down and will continue that trend.  However, you may find that a neighborhood less than two miles away is holding its own and often times showing appreciation rates above 5%.  So, why are values all over the place and how can you tell whether its a good time to buy ……. or sell for that matter?  It isn’t easy but if you are looking to do either you will benefit by doing more homework now and keeping track of your target area.

Local markets that are holding their own or apprecaiting in the Denver Metro are areas with the highest performing schools, close and convenient to business and cultural centers and developed, mature communities.  Price point is also a noticeable factor.  There are less buyer incentives being offered and far less foreclosures among properties listed above the $350,000 range.  The most incentives and foreclosures will be found in the price range under $130,000.  So, if you are looking to buy it may be a great time to look at investment properties.  However, if you are looking for a steal in suburbia where the schools are top notch and the backyard is on the golf course…. well these places aren’t the bargains the listing makes them out to be.  Investments are selling for half of what they last sold for while most upper end neighborhoods are getting some appreciation. 

There is a possibility that huge discounts could be seen in the price ranges over $350,000 if we find ourselves confronted with the big “R” (recession).  But it’s anyone’s guess.  I can tell you that we are starting to see a few foreclosures in the price ranges over $500,000.  However, I have a theory that these homes will be mostly newer homes.  The “old money” is in the established neighborhoods while the “new money” people who made a buck in the real estate rush are the ones that bought the new house on the golf course.  The “old money” folks are in no rush to sell and these neighborhoods will hold stable while the “new money” folks will be trying to down size themselves out of trouble.

How much more downward movement can the Denver area expect?  I say not much unless we are talking properties that are already in foreclosure.  After all, prices have remained stable here for the last four years while place like California, Nevada, Florida and Arizona have seen explosive price increases.  Denver is now more affordable than many of these places.  And with a full blown credit crisis it is likely that the government will step in and offer some type of “bail out” for homeowners that haven’t faced resets on mortgages yet.  Further, folks that wanted to sell but can’t get what they wanted will end up renting their house out or just sitting tight.  And with vacancy rates at lows and rents increasing, this may be a way for some to ride the tide.

Bottom line…… I have personally been looking for a “steal” in neighbors with great schools and easy access to major highways, etc. and I haven’t found it.  However, I am finding it hard to choose an investment property becuase deals are abound.  And when I think an investment is a good deal, the price drops again or another one comes on the market that is better.  Evaluate your reason for buying or selling and then make the determination based on your personal needs….. not national media hype.